Archive
Every dispatch, newest first.
47 dispatches on file.
October 2026
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · County Read No. 19 · Franklin County
Franklin County: a 39-point swing in the state capital
Frankfort is the last county in the twenty outside Louisville and Lexington with a Democratic majority on paper, and the only one whose Democrats turn out harder than its Republicans in a governor's year — by five and a half points in 2023. Beshear got 67% here. Trump carried it by five twelve months later. Charles Booker carried it in 2022. Its one House seat inside the city is a Democrat's, and nobody filed against her.
Monday, October 19, 2026 · County Read No. 18 · Jessamine County
Jessamine County: Cameron's margin was 64 votes. The money gap is 13 to 1.
Nicholasville's county is Lexington's southern suburb, and it votes like the suburb it is: Trump by 36, Cameron by six, fourteen of 35 precincts flipping between them. Eleven of those flip precincts sit in the 39th, where Cameron's margin was 64 votes and the incumbent has $111,898 to the challenger's $8,582. Four Jessamine precincts sit in the 45th, which was decided by 172 votes in 2024 and holds the largest Democratic account in the House.
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · County Read No. 17 · Pike County
Pike County: a 56-point swing, and the voter file just went Republican
Pikeville's county was 75% Democratic on paper in 2010 and had a Republican majority on the file for the first time this August. It voted for Rand Paul's opponent within a point in 2010, for Trump by 65 in 2024, and for Cameron by nine in between. That's a 56-point swing, seventeen wider than any other county in Kentucky's top twenty. It's also the only county in this series east of Lexington with a Democratic incumbent on the ballot — and he's being out-raised.
Friday, October 16, 2026 · County Read No. 16 · Scott County
The 125-vote House seat in Scott County has no Democrat on the ballot
Georgetown's county has grown by half since 2010 and swings 37 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot, tied for the widest in the series. Twenty-nine of its 45 precincts voted for Rand Paul and then for Andy Beshear. Its Democrats out-vote its Republicans in off-years. And the House seat that sits on all of that — lost by 125 votes in 2024 — has a Republican, an independent, and no Democrat on the ballot.
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · County Reads Nos. 13–15 · Pulaski, Laurel, Christian
Where nobody's running: Pulaski, Laurel and Christian counties
Twelve House districts touch these three counties. One has a race, and it's $208,445 to $930. Pulaski and Laurel are the floor of the series — Trump by 65 and by 70 — and Beshear still set the Democratic record in both. Christian is the exception: a Democratic column that actually votes, and a Hopkinsville seat Cameron carried by 329 votes where nobody has filed against the incumbent in two cycles.
Monday, October 12, 2026 · County Read No. 12 · McCracken County
McCracken County: $163,000 against nothing in Paducah's House seat
Paducah's county was 63% Democratic on paper in 2010 and is 42% now, and it's one of two counties in the series that grew through the purge. Beshear lost it by fifteen in 2019 and by six in 2023 — the biggest four-year gain of any county in the twenty outside Lexington. Four of its five legislative seats have no opponent. The fifth has a Democrat who hasn't reported a dollar against a Republican with $163,416.
Friday, October 9, 2026 · County Read No. 11 · Bullitt County
Bullitt County's Democratic vote hasn't moved in sixteen years
Louisville's southern exurb swings 37 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot — the widest in the series so far — and none of it is Democrats. About 10,000 people vote for the Democrat in Bullitt County every time, in every kind of year. The Republican vote goes from 14,000 to 32,000. Four legislative seats, four Republicans, four with no opponent.
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · County Read No. 10 · Madison County
Madison County: a 34-point swing and two House seats with no Democrat
Richmond, Berea and Eastern Kentucky University. Beshear carried Madison by 185 votes in 2019 and by 932 in 2023; Trump carried it by 31. That's a 34-point swing, the widest of the ten counties in this series so far. Its Democrats out-vote its Republicans in Beshear years and in no others, and two of its four House seats have no Democrat on the ballot.
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · County Read No. 9 · Campbell County
The closest House seat in Kentucky is in Campbell County: 30 votes
Newport's county is the most Democratic of the three Northern Kentucky counties and the only one that gives Beshear a real margin — eight points in 2023. It has the closest House seat in Kentucky, a second seat where Beshear won the county's precincts by twelve votes and the incumbent has seven dollars to the challenger's one, and a Democratic column that shows up in off-years and disappears in federal ones.
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · County Read No. 8 · Daviess County
A Democrat is out-raising the incumbent nine to one in Daviess County
Owensboro's county was Democratic by 32 points on paper in 2010 and is Republican by four now. It swings 34 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot, more than any county in this series so far. Every legislative seat on its ballot has a Democrat, and in the one that had none two years ago, the Democrat has $36,381 to the incumbent's $4,000.
Monday, October 5, 2026 · The read · The books close today
The books close tonight. Five dates left, and one is the whole ballgame.
Today is the last day to register to vote in Kentucky's November election. From here the voter file is fixed, the calendar is short, and the only thing left to decide is who actually shows up. Here's every date that matters between now and the third of November, what each one is worth in votes, and the arithmetic of what a campaign can still do with the time it has.
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · County Read No. 7 · Hardin County
Hardin County: 175 votes for governor, not a dollar in the close House race
Elizabethtown and Fort Knox. Cameron carried Hardin by 175 votes in 2023; Trump carried it by 14,100 a year later. Twenty-six of its 58 precincts flipped between the two. The reason none of that reaches a legislative seat: the no-party column is one in seven voters and turned out at 17% in 2023 — the lowest in the series — and the one close race on the ballot is a House seat where neither candidate has reported a dollar.
Friday, October 2, 2026 · County Read No. 6 · Warren County
Warren County: six House seats, $527,000, and nobody to spend it on
Bowling Green's county was Democratic by nineteen points on paper in 2010 and is Republican by seven now. It swings 28 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot — the widest in the series so far — and none of it matters in November, because all six of its legislative seats are Republican and all six are unopposed. Six incumbents, $527,000, nobody to spend it on.
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · County Read No. 5 · Boone County
Not one Boone County precinct went to Harris. Beshear carried nine.
Boone is the fastest-growing big county in Kentucky and the most Republican of the twenty on a federal ballot. Trump carried it by 37; Kamala Harris carried none of its sixty precincts. Beshear cut the margin to twelve and carried nine. Its Republicans out-vote its Democrats by eleven points in a presidential year, and three of its six House seats have no Democrat on the ballot.
September 2026
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · The read · Fayette and Northern Kentucky
Lexington and Northern Kentucky: 22 House seats, four inside five points, one decided by 30 votes.
Democrats are contesting 17 of the 22 House districts in Fayette County and Northern Kentucky this fall, up from 16 last time — and one of the four closest seats lost its Democrat to a signature challenge in May. Four of them turned on 30, 125, 172 votes and twelve points in 2024. The precinct map says which two are real, the money says which two are funded, and only one seat is both.
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 · County Read No. 4 · Kenton County
Kenton County: Republican by 22 for president, Democratic by six for governor, and the biggest turnout gap in the state.
Covington's county was even on paper in 2010 and is Republican by eleven on paper now. Trump carried it by 22 and Beshear carried it by six, twelve months apart. The reason it isn't a swing county in November is the same every year: its registered Republicans out-vote its registered Democrats by three to eleven points, and its no-party column — the biggest share in Kentucky — barely votes at all.
Monday, September 28, 2026 · The read · The electorate
The no-party voter is the margin. Nobody is talking to them.
386,382 Kentuckians are registered in neither party — one in nine voters, and growing in 113 of 120 counties. None of them could vote in May. All of them can vote in November. They turn out fifteen to twenty points below everyone else, they live in Northern Kentucky, the Army counties and the suburbs, and no campaign in this state has a plan for them.
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · County Read No. 3 · Fayette County
Fayette County: Democratic by one in 2012, by eighteen in 2024, and four precincts the Republicans can count on.
Lexington is the one big county in Kentucky that moved toward the Democrats on the presidential ballot — seventeen points in twelve years — and its registered Democrats out-vote its Republicans in almost every election. It has nine House seats, one real race, one Democrat out-raising everyone in the state, and one seat the Democrats lost in court before a vote was cast.
Friday, September 25, 2026 · The read · The electorate
Ten days until the books close. Here's what moved.
Registration for November ends October 5. Since the primary the rolls grew by 16,353 — and the Democratic column didn't get a single one of them. Fifteen counties have flipped to Republican on paper since 2024, including Pike and Woodford. The map of where the new voters actually landed says something else.
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · County Read No. 2 · Jefferson County
Jefferson County: Democratic by 16 for president, by 40 for governor, and 32 precincts the Republicans can count on.
The biggest county in Kentucky is 56% Democratic on paper, votes 16 points Democratic in a presidential year and 40 in a Beshear year, and its registered Republicans have out-voted its registered Democrats in the last two federal elections. Eighteen House seats sit inside it. Seven are Republican. This year the Democrats are contesting six of them and the Republicans are contesting four of the other eleven.
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · The read · Jefferson County
Four state Senate seats on Louisville ballots. Two of them can be won.
Jefferson County votes on four state Senate seats this fall. One is Karen Berg's, and she's earned it. One has no Democrat in it. The other two are live: a teacher from Middletown in a district that went Trump by two, and a physician from Oldham County in one that went Beshear by twelve. The precinct maps say where each of them wins it.
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · County Read No. 1 · Oldham County
Oldham County: Republican by 30, then by 22, then by 225 votes.
First in a series: the twenty biggest counties in Kentucky, one at a time, by the numbers. Oldham has gotten redder on paper every year since 2010 and bluer at the ballot box since 2016. In 2023 its registered Democrats out-voted its registered Republicans and Beshear lost the county by 225 votes. This fall, for the first time in the data, there's a Democrat on every legislative line of the ballot.
Monday, September 21, 2026 · The take
AI won't win your race. It will give you back the hours you were losing.
Every campaign in Kentucky is being sold AI this year, and most of the pitches are for the one thing it does worst. Here's where it actually earns its keep — and the three places I'd keep it out.
Friday, September 18, 2026 · The read · Turnout
The missing Democrats aren't in the mountains.
In a Trump-era federal election, registered Republicans in Kentucky turn out four to nine points better than registered Democrats. In a Beshear election the gap disappears. Two maps show where the gap actually lives — and it isn't where the map sends your eye first.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · Field notes
VoteBuilder has two doors. Most campaigns only open one.
MyVoters is the file. MyCampaign is your people. Seven weeks out, the campaigns that will use October well are the ones running the two against each other now — and the first thing the join turns up is a number nobody wants to see.
Monday, September 14, 2026 · 2026 · KY-06
Two Republicans took Trump off their websites. The 6th's math says why.
Andy Barr scrubbed 16 Trump references on July 16. Ralph Alvarado scrubbed five more on August 19. Every public poll of the 6th is a Democratic internal — so read the campaigns' behavior instead. It's the most honest number in the race.
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 2026 · The electorate
Kentucky has 3.4 million voters on paper. Here's who's actually there.
The Democratic column has lost 16 points of the state since 2010, and most of it never cast a Democratic vote. Who's gone, who's new, why the headline number predicts the least — and what to do about it before the books close October 5.
August 2026
Friday, August 28, 2026 · Field notes
"Can we just do postcards?" is a better question than you think.
It's the question every campaign gets in September, and most of them answer it wrong in one of two directions. Here's the ladder that turns a postcard table into a knocking crew — and the one rung almost nobody builds.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · The read · Kentucky Senate
Thirty to seven. The Senate math, and the ten seats nobody contested.
Kentucky's Senate is 30 Republicans to 7 Democrats. No turnout year fixes that. But nineteen seats are on the ballot in November, ten of them drew no Democrat at all last time, and three of those ten finally have one.
Friday, August 21, 2026 · The read · Fall 2026
The best case, the worst case, and the 115,000 voters in between.
Kentucky's last two midterms were 115,214 ballots apart. Which one 2026 resembles decides the Senate margin, five House tossups, and every close race in this state. Here are both scenarios, read straight.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · The take
Your campaign already paid for the answers. Use them.
In June I wrote that campaigns gather all the data and then don't use it. This is the follow-up nobody asked for and everybody needs: the five moves that turn a voter file from a receipt into a weapon.
Monday, August 17, 2026 · The read · Metro Council
No party labels, top two advance: the new Metro Council math.
Louisville just ran its first nonpartisan council primaries. Six districts, twelve November finalists, and a May electorate small enough to fit in a high-school gym. Here's what the numbers can tell you — and the bigger thing they can't.
Friday, August 14, 2026 · The read · Jefferson County
Jefferson County's House math: a 340-vote flip gap, a 249-vote hold.
Eighteen state House districts sit inside this county. Democrats hold eleven. Here's the honest math on the other seven — not who wins, but what each one costs in doors.
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Field notes
A ground game is a math problem you solve in February.
Every October, somebody calls asking for 200 volunteers by Saturday. Here's the arithmetic that call always loses to — doors, hours, and the calendar.
Monday, August 10, 2026 · 2026 · U.S. House
Six districts. Every line filled. Two real fights.
For the first time since 2022, every Kentucky congressional ballot has a Democrat on it. Here's the math on all six — including the seat Republicans spent $32 million taking away from their own incumbent.
Thursday, August 6, 2026 · The read · voting law
The rules changed everywhere. Kentucky's math mostly didn't.
The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act and Washington spent the summer fighting over mail ballots. Almost none of it moves a Kentucky number — and the one fight that would isn't the one making headlines.
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · The read · Kentucky House
Twenty seats, five tossups, and 44 the Democrats didn't contest.
Republicans hold 80 seats to 20. But the chamber turns less on the five tossups everyone watches than on the 44 races where no Democrat even filed.
July 2026
Thursday, July 30, 2026 · The Read · Operator
Organizing 101 — the primer nobody wrote
Everyone says the party needs to organize. Almost no one says what the word means on a Tuesday afternoon when there's work to do. Here's the unglamorous version — what organizing actually is, and the handful of fundamentals that move a vote.
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Primary recap
Turnout didn't just run low. It ran late.
Four in five Jefferson voters waited for Election Day. That doesn't just describe the primary — it hands the fall back to the oldest program in the book: get-out-the-vote weekend, the good old definition.
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · The read · money in politics
The Court took the cap off party money. In Kentucky, that changes who runs the coordinated campaign.
On June 30 the Supreme Court let parties spend unlimited money in coordination with their candidates. The sleeper consequence isn't in Washington. It's that a county party can now run an uncapped coordinated campaign — and this is the year Louisville should.
Thursday, July 9, 2026 · 2026 · KY-06
The 6th is open. Here's the math, county by county.
Andy Barr left for the Senate, the 6th is open, and Zach Dembo is the Democrat. "Barr won by 26" hides the real story — which is sixteen different stories, and they don't behave alike.
Tuesday, July 7, 2026 · Primary recap
What the primary told us — and the three things it didn't.
The headline was the Senate race. The lesson was the turnout gap. And the most important numbers are the ones that weren't on the ballot in May.
Thursday, July 2, 2026 · 2026 · U.S. Senate
Booker vs. Barr: the floor is 38, and this time the seat is open.
Three Kentucky Democrats have run for Senate in the last decade and lost. All three ran at an incumbent. This one doesn't — and that, plus a midterm with Trump off the ballot, is the whole case for paying attention.
June 2026
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 · Field notes
The party and the campaigns are not the same job. That's the point.
When they get confused for each other, both do worse. When they each do their own job, a coordinated campaign actually works.
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · The take
Campaigns gather all the data. Then they don't use it.
The most expensive mistake in Kentucky politics isn't a bad ad. It's a good number nobody acted on.
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · 2026 primary · U.S. Senate
Two primaries, one map.
Barr swept the state red. Booker swept Louisville. The mountains broke for McGrath.
Thursday, June 18, 2026 · Founder's note
Reading the numbers straight.
Why I started The 120 — and what you can expect to find here.