Polls close at six. My read: Democrats are fired up.
Years of experience say Democrats are energized and Republicans seem fed up. Three counties will show you first.
LOUISVILLE — This is my read, not a forecast. Years of working Kentucky elections have me looking at this night a certain way. Democrats are more energized and excited than I have felt in a long time. Republicans seem fed up. The national environment plays a role in that. Kentucky has been hit hard by Trump at every level, and the one person in the state who has been trying to help is Andy Beshear, a Democrat and Kentucky's current governor.
I was here for the biggest wave I have ever seen, in 2006. I think tonight is going to be bigger than that.
If it is, a lot of people will look at the map afterward and say, "if only Kentucky Democrats had more candidates in all these races." That regret lands on the legislative seats that went uncontested. Boyle's LD 54 has no Democrat on the ballot. Plenty of House districts across the state are the same. The energy has nowhere to go where nobody filed.
Here's how you'll see it happen tonight.
The first counties. Three of 120 have sat near the state on both of the last two statewide ballots. Watch them.
2022 was the last midterm, so it's the turnout yardstick: statewide, 1,502,626 ballots out of 3,590,227 registered, 41.9%. 2024 Trump (R +31.0 two-party) and 2023 Beshear (D +5.1 two-party) are the performance poles.
| County | 2022 turnout | 2024 pres (R margin, two-party) | 2023 gov (R margin, two-party) | 2024 two-party votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boyle | 10,514 / 23,538, 44.7% | R +29.5 | D +5.8 | 14,149 |
| Madison | 30,413 / 75,494, 40.3% | R +31.5 | D +3.4 | 44,310 |
| Daviess | 33,276 / 79,462, 41.9% | R +32.4 | D +2.2 | 46,378 |
| Statewide | 1,502,626 / 3,590,227, 41.9% | R +31.0 | D +5.1 | 2,041,534 |
Kenton (2024 R +22.2, 2023 D +5.6, 2022 turnout 36.1%) and Warren (2024 R +24.7, 2023 D +4.2, 2022 turnout 41.2%) match 2023 but sit to the left of the state on 2024. That gap is the suburban split, and it's worth watching on its own.
What a good night and a bad night look like. On performance, a margin closer to 2023 is good for Democrats; near or to the right of 2024 is bad. On turnout, compare each county to its own 2022 turnout.
Reporting order. Every county, including Jefferson, comes from the State Board of Elections' election-night state feed. Boyle and Madison are Eastern time and close at 6 p.m. ET. Daviess is Central and closes at 6 p.m. CT (7 p.m. ET).
Contest per county. Boyle's only House seat, LD 54, is uncontested, so the read is countywide turnout. Madison has contested seats in LD 81 and LD 91. Daviess has contested seats in LD 7, LD 13, and LD 14.
Where to get results. the120ky.com/results, live after polls close. Unofficial results. Races are marked Called once the outcome is clear.
Source: Kentucky State Board of Elections (SBE) certified returns; KREF.