Twenty counties, one table: every swing, every seat, every blank line
I read twenty Kentucky counties this fall. Here is what they say together, three days out.
LOUISVILLE — When I started the County Reads on September 22 I said the series would end before Election Day. This is the scorecard, three days before Tuesday: twenty counties, one table, and the handful of things I'd tell you if you only had time for one.
The short version: outside Jefferson, Fayette and Franklin, more Kentuckians are registered Republican every year. But plenty of them still voted for Beshear. In many of these counties, the state House and Senate races have no Democrat running at all, or one without the money to compete.
The table. Headline numbers as published in each Read. Registration is the State Board of Elections August 2026 monthly file. Pres '24 is the Republican margin in the 2024 presidential race; Gov '23 is the Democratic margin in the 2023 governor's race when Democrats won the county, or the Republican margin when Republicans won; Swing is the Republican presidential margin plus the Democratic gubernatorial margin, in percentage points of the total vote. Statewide two-party: R +31.0 in 2024 on 2,041,534 votes; D +5.1 in 2023 on 1,321,939 votes. Margins from the State Board of Elections' certified county returns.
| # | County | Registered | Pres '24 | Gov '23 | Swing | Headline number | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oldham | 54,317 | R +22.6 | R +0.9 | 21.7 | Republican by 30, then 22, then 225 votes | /dispatch/county-read-oldham |
| 2 | Jefferson | 588,268 | D +16.5 | D +40.1 | 23.6 | D by 16 for president, by 40 for governor | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-jefferson |
| 3 | Fayette | 226,182 | D +18.1 | D +43.5 | 25.4 | 51.9% D, 33.6% R, 14.4% no-party | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-fayette |
| 4 | Kenton | 149,379 | R +21.7 | D +5.6 | 27.3 | Beshear won it; Trump won it by 22 | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-kenton |
| 5 | Boone | 105,690 | R +37.2 | R +12.1 | 25.1 | no precinct for Harris; Beshear carried nine | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-boone |
| 6 | Warren | 93,175 | R +24.3 | D +4.3 | 28.5 | six House seats, $599,000, nobody to spend it on | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-warren |
| 7 | Hardin | 83,039 | R +29.3 | R +0.6 | 28.7 | 175 votes for governor | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-hardin |
| 8 | Daviess | 75,646 | R +31.9 | D +2.2 | 34.1 | Democrat out-raising the incumbent nine to one | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-daviess |
| 9 | Campbell | 73,336 | R +19.7 | D +8.4 | 28.0 | the closest House seat in Kentucky, 30 votes | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-campbell |
| 10 | Madison | 72,199 | R +30.9 | D +3.4 | 34.3 | a 34-point swing | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-madison |
| 11 | Bullitt | 65,077 | R +51.0 | R +14.1 | 36.9 | first Republican registration majority, 55.5% | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-bullitt |
| 12 | McCracken | 59,969 | R +34.9 | R +5.9 | 29.1 | $183,666 | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-mccracken |
| 13 | Pulaski | 50,990 | R +65.2 | R +35.7 | 29.5 | one contested race on the edge; the rest blank | /dispatch/where-nobodys-running |
| 14 | Laurel | 47,265 | R +69.9 | R +37.2 | 32.7 | House seats unopposed | /dispatch/where-nobodys-running |
| 15 | Christian | 46,147 | R +33.6 | R +14.6 | 19.0 | the open door with nobody walking through | /dispatch/where-nobodys-running |
| 16 | Scott | 45,303 | R +27.7 | D +9.2 | 36.9 | the 125-vote seat with no Democrat | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-scott |
| 17 | Pike | 42,075 | R +65.4 | R +9.1 | 56.3 | a 56-point swing | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-pike |
| 18 | Jessamine | 41,019 | R +35.8 | R +6.4 | 29.4 | Cameron's margin, 64 votes | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-jessamine |
| 19 | Franklin | 38,987 | R +4.9 | D +37.0 | 41.9 | a 42-point swing | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-franklin |
| 20 | Shelby | 38,804 | R +34.7 | R +4.8 | 29.8 | the 58th, nine dollars for every ten | /dispatch/county-read-2026g-shelby |
Three rankings
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The swing, top to bottom. Among these twenty counties, the swing runs Pike 56.3, Franklin 41.9, Scott and Bullitt 36.9, Madison 34.3, Daviess 34.1, Laurel 32.7, Shelby 29.8, Pulaski 29.5, Jessamine 29.4, McCracken 29.1, Hardin 28.7, Warren 28.5, Campbell 28.0, Kenton 27.3, Fayette 25.4, Boone 25.1, Jefferson 23.6, Oldham 21.7, Christian 19.0. Pike at the top, Christian at the bottom. (State Board of Elections certified county returns.
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Where Beshear's 2023 vote beat Harris's 2024 vote in raw votes. Seven of the twenty: Pike (+1,772), Franklin (+1,504), Laurel (+937), Pulaski (+788), Bullitt (+443), Shelby (+124), Scott (+74). Everywhere else in this set, Harris outpolled Beshear in raw votes even where Beshear won the county. (SBE certified county returns; Democratic candidate votes, 2023 governor vs 2024 president.)
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Nothing contested on the legislative ballot. Warren: every House seat that touches the county is unopposed. Bullitt: all four legislative seats on the ballot (three House, one Senate) are unopposed, per the Bullitt Read. Laurel and Christian: their House seats are blank or unopposed; the one contested race in the Pulaski-Laurel-Christian trio is LD 80 on Pulaski's edge, where Speaker Pro Tem David Meade raised $138,202.50 for the general, plus $111,675.12 carried in from the primary ($249,877.62 through the 15-day), against Mary Russell's $1,430.87 for the general with no carry-in transfer on her general reports (see /dispatch/where-nobodys-running; KREF 60-day, 30-day and 15-day pre-General, plus primary reports for Meade's carry-in).
Seats the map points at with no funded Democrat. LD 88 (125 votes in 2024; Alisha Dawn Chaffin withdrew, so no Democrat on the ballot; Independent L. Scott Miller is the only non-Republican). LD 37 (Emily Myers Callaway, Republican, unopposed). LD 8 (Walker Wood Thomas, Republican, unopposed; he has no general-election contribution report through the 15-day pre-General in the Registry filings loaded here). LD 3 has a Democrat, Michael McVicker, who raised $2,835.00 on the 60-day pre-General only and has no 30-day or 15-day pre-General contribution rows; Randy Bridges raised $85,950.00 for the general, plus $97,716.29 carried in from the primary ($183,666.29 through the 15-day).
What I'm watching Tuesday. Shelby's 58th, the cleanest test in the series of whether the Beshear vote goes to a funded Democrat. Campbell's 30-vote 67th. The 45th, where four Jessamine precincts decide a Fayette seat.
Election night numbers will be at the120ky.com/results on Tuesday after polls close at 6 p.m. local time.
Every Read, linked above.
Source: Kentucky State Board of Elections (SBE) certified returns; KREF.