Vol. I · Saturday, June 13, 2026Louisville, Kentucky
The 120 — Numbers desk
The120
Numbers desk · Tanner Norkus Consulting

Every race in Kentucky is a math problem. I read it straight.

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2026 primary · U.S. Senate

Two primaries, one map.

Barr swept the state red. Booker swept Louisville. The mountains broke for McGrath.

By Lisa NorkusWednesday, June 10, 2026LOUISVILLE
Two primaries, one map.

LOUISVILLE — On May 19, Kentucky cast 798,781 ballots in the U.S. Senate primary. The headline is in two numbers and two colors.

283,833

Andy Barr — Republican primary winner

Won 116 of Kentucky's 120 counties. Daniel Cameron carried just four — Oldham, Hardin, LaRue and Trimble — finished with 144,592 statewide, and has already endorsed Barr.

154,614

Charles Booker — Democratic primary winner

Won the urban core. Lost the mountains. Amy McGrath finished with 117,853 — only 36,761 votes back of Booker.

The state map shows the partisan shape of the night — light blue where the D primary outvoted the R primary, deep red where it didn't. There is one light blue county.

Total Senate ballots cast
FewMany
2026 U.S. Senate primary · share of ballots cast by party. Toggle to "R primary" or "D primary" to see the intra-party margins in each campaign's own brand colors.

That light blue county is Jefferson. Booker took it 57,558 to McGrath's 27,018 — a 31-point margin and the only county where the Democratic primary turnout actually exceeded the Republican primary turnout.

Jefferson County · 2026 U.S. Senate primary

D Booker98,095 · 69.9%
R Barr42,333 · 30.1%
140,428 primary ballots castFull county →

East of Lexington, the map flips inside the Democratic primary. McGrath beat Booker in Pike — 1,340 to 1,025 — and across a string of Appalachian counties Booker barely contested. And it is not only the mountains: McGrath also won the Northern Kentucky suburbs — Kenton, Boone and Campbell. Booker's coalition is Louisville and two college towns. Almost everywhere else a Democrat voted, the name on the ballot was McGrath. The progressive lane sells in the cities. It has not yet sold anywhere else.

Pike County · 2026 U.S. Senate primary

D McGrath3,089 · 35.0%
R Barr5,741 · 65.0%
8,830 primary ballots castFull county →

That gap is what Barr's general-election campaign will spend the next five months pointing at. He has 120 reliable Republican counties and a runner-up he doesn't have to fight anymore. Booker has Jefferson, two college towns, and an Eastern Kentucky problem.

I'll keep reading the precincts as they come in.

— End of dispatch —