What I'm watching tomorrow night

LOUISVILLE — Polls open six to six local time tomorrow. The night is a statewide board. Here is what I am watching, region by region.

1. Turnout against 2022.

The last midterm is the turnout yardstick, not a performance score. Statewide in the 2022 general, Kentucky cast 1,502,626 ballots out of 3,590,227 registered voters, 41.9% (SBE turnout by county). Performance poles are 2024 and the 2023 Beshear map. Tonight I'm watching whether turnout matches 2022 or beats it, and where.

2. Northern Kentucky.

Campbell, Kenton, and Boone are the first read outside Louisville. Beshear carried Campbell by about 8 points and Kenton by about 6 in 2023; Trump carried them by about 20 and 22 in 2024. Boone stayed Republican both years (SBE certified county returns).

• LD 67 (Campbell). Decided by 30 votes in 2024 (SBE). Matthew Lehman (D) has raised $134,609; Terry Hatton (R) has raised $16,513 (KREF general 60-day, 30-day, and 15-day pre-General contribution reports). Closest House seat in the state on prior margin.
• LD 65 (Kenton). Stephanie Dietz (R) won by about 2,500 in 2024. Aaron Currin (D) has raised $26,847; Dietz has raised $224,385.
• LD 69. Wilanne Stangel (D) has raised $22,896; Steven Doan (R) has raised $27,425.
• Senate District 24. Joshua Baker (D) has raised $6,913; Shelley Funke Frommeyer (R) has raised $129,854.

3. Lexington and central Kentucky.

Fayette stayed Democratic for president and for governor. Madison and Boyle flipped the other way: Beshear carried both in 2023 (Madison by about 3, Boyle by about 6); Trump carried both in 2024 (Madison by about 32, Boyle by about 30). Franklin swung about 42 points from Beshear to Trump (SBE county returns).

• LD 45 (Fayette / Jessamine). Decided by 172 votes in 2024. Adam Moore (D) has raised $240,184; Killian Timoney (R) has raised $93,518.
• LD 88 (Scott / northern Fayette fringe). Vanessa Grossl (R) won by 125 votes in 2024. No Democrat on the 2026 ballot; Independent L. Scott Miller is the challenger. Grossl has raised $61,389. Scott County went Beshear by about 9 in 2023 and Trump by about 28 in 2024.
• LD 58 (Shelby). Jennifer Henson Decker (R) was unopposed in 2024. Andrew Monarch (D) has raised $44,596; Decker has raised $64,411. Shelby went Trump by about 35 in 2024 and Republican by about 5 for governor in 2023.
• LD 56 (Woodford / Franklin fringe). Daniel Fister (R) won by about 3,600 in 2024. David Graves (D) has raised $7,227; Fister has raised $110,511.
• Madison's contested seats. LD 81: Anthony Looney (D) has raised $13,648; Deanna Frazier Gordon (R) has raised $50,978. LD 91: David Johnson (D) has raised $10,329; Darrell Billings (R) has raised $62,312. Senate District 34: Jessica McIntosh (D) has raised $9,693; Jared Carpenter (R) has raised $133,293.
• Boyle. LD 54 has no Democrat on the ballot (SOS filings). Daniel B. Elliott (R) is unopposed. The county still belongs on the board for turnout: it voted for Beshear, then swung hard toward Trump.

4. Bowling Green and Warren.

Warren is the blank-ballot story. Beshear carried the county by about 4 points in 2023; Trump carried it by about 25 in 2024. Six legislative seats touch the county. All six are Republican. All six are unopposed (SOS filings). Together, Max Wise, Mike Wilson, Michael Meredith, Robert Duvall, Kevin Jackson, and Shawn McPherson (filed in KREF as Douglas McPherson) have raised about $599,000 on general reports through the 15-day (KREF). Money with nowhere to spend it on a local race.

5. Owensboro and Daviess.

Daviess went Beshear by about 2 points in 2023 and Trump by about 32 in 2024. Four legislative seats on the county's ballot are contested:

• Senate District 8. Vicki Quisenberry (D) has raised $46,448; Gary Boswell (R) has raised $153,632.
• LD 7. Laurie Campbell (D) has raised $50,629; Suzanne Miles (R) has raised $4,000.
• LD 13. Rhondalyn Randolph (D) has raised $13,724; D. J. Johnson (R) has raised $90,324.
• LD 14. Donna Haynes (D) has raised $10,403; Wes Pate (R) has raised $27,140.

6. Eastern Kentucky.

Pike swung about 57 points from the 2023 governor's race to the 2024 presidential race, the biggest move among the counties I have been reading (SBE). Contested House seats on that end of the map:

• LD 95. Johnny Ray Turner (D) has raised $55,322; Tanner Hesterberg (R) has raised $158,189.
• LD 97. Rebekah Skaggs (D) has raised $18,480; Bobby McCool (R) has raised $113,050.
• LD 96. Pamela Lewis (D) has raised $10,401; Patrick Flannery (R) has raised $137,288.
• LD 80 (Pulaski edge). Mary Russell (D) has raised $1,431 for the general; David Meade (R) has raised $138,203 for the general, plus $111,675 carried in from the primary on his general reports.

7. Western Kentucky.

McCracken went Republican by about 6 for governor in 2023 and by about 35 for president in 2024. The contested House seat on the Paducah ballot:

• LD 3. Michael McVicker (D) has raised $2,835 for the general; Randy Bridges (R) has raised $85,950 for the general, plus about $97,716 carried in from the primary ($183,666 on general reports through the 15-day).

8. Jefferson County.

Ten Jefferson Legislative Districts have both a Democrat and a Republican on the 2026 general ballot (SOS filings). The ones with a real prior fight:

• LD 31. Witten (R) beat Davis by 340 votes in 2024. Tim Hall (D) has raised $128,411; Susan Tyler Witten has raised $295,575.
• LD 38. Roarx (D) beat McKeehan by 249 votes in 2024. Rachel Roarx has raised $100,473; Carrie Sanders McKeehan has raised $75,019.
• LD 48. Fleming (R) beat Farrow by 2,114 in 2024. Suhas Kulkarni (D) has raised $188,814; Ken Fleming has raised $337,281.

Jefferson-area Senate seats on the ballot: SD 6 (Furman has raised $208,825; Tichenor has raised $239,316), SD 10, SD 26, and SD 36. SD 38 is unopposed.

Metro Council, short. House Bill 388 (2024), Acts Chapter 181, amended KRS 67C.103 and 67C.105 so Louisville Metro Council and mayor are nonpartisan starting in 2026. Odd-numbered council districts are on tomorrow's ballot. Ten of thirteen are contested. Mayor is also nonpartisan this cycle.

There's no party next to any name in these races, including mayor.

My read, as opinion: drop-off on council races will be larger than it normally is because no party is listed. What we can measure Tuesday is the undervote against the top of the ballot, district by district.

What I want on the board Tuesday night

1. Statewide turnout vs. 2022, then Campbell, Fayette, Warren, Daviess, Pike, and McCracken.
2. LD 67, LD 45, LD 88, and LD 58.
3. Whether Warren's blank House and Senate lines stay quiet while the money sits.
4. Daviess SD 8 and LD 7.
5. LD 95 and LD 3.
6. Jefferson LD 31, 38, and 48, plus Metro Council undervote.

Polls close at six local. Most of the state is Eastern; the western counties close an hour later Eastern time. Live results on the120ky.com/results.

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Sources: Kentucky State Board of Elections (SBE) turnout and certified county returns; Kentucky Registry of Election Finance (KREF) 2026 general 60-day, 30-day, and 15-day pre-General contribution reports; Secretary of State candidate filings; HB 388 (2024 RS), Acts Ch. 181.