County reads
Twenty counties. Same five questions each time.
The twenty biggest counties, one dispatch at a time: the paper, the ballots, the turnout, the map, the money. Oldham was first. The wrap lands November 1.
- 01
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Oldham County: Republican by 30, then by 22, then by 225 votes.
First in a series: the twenty biggest counties in Kentucky, one at a time, by the numbers. Oldham has gotten redder on paper every year since 2010 and bluer at the ballot box since 2016. In 2023 its registered Democrats out-voted its registered Republicans and Beshear lost the county by 225 votes. This fall, for the first time in the data, there's a Democrat on every legislative line of the ballot.
- 02
Thursday, September 24, 2026
Jefferson County: Democratic by 16 for president, by 40 for governor, and 32 precincts the Republicans can count on.
The biggest county in Kentucky is 56% Democratic on paper, votes 16 points Democratic in a presidential year and 40 in a Beshear year, and its registered Republicans have out-voted its registered Democrats in the last two federal elections. Eighteen House seats sit inside it. Seven are Republican. This year the Democrats are contesting six of them and the Republicans are contesting four of the other eleven.
- 03
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Fayette County: Democratic by one in 2012, by eighteen in 2024, and four precincts the Republicans can count on.
Lexington is the one big county in Kentucky that moved toward the Democrats on the presidential ballot — seventeen points in twelve years — and its registered Democrats out-vote its Republicans in almost every election. It has nine House seats, one real race, one Democrat out-raising everyone in the state, and one seat the Democrats lost in court before a vote was cast.
- 04
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Kenton County: Republican by 22 for president, Democratic by six for governor, and the biggest turnout gap in the state.
Covington's county was even on paper in 2010 and is Republican by eleven on paper now. Trump carried it by 22 and Beshear carried it by six, twelve months apart. The reason it isn't a swing county in November is the same every year: its registered Republicans out-vote its registered Democrats by three to eleven points, and its no-party column — the biggest share in Kentucky — barely votes at all.
- 05
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Not one Boone County precinct went to Harris. Beshear carried nine.
Boone is the fastest-growing big county in Kentucky and the most Republican of the twenty on a federal ballot. Trump carried it by 37; Kamala Harris carried none of its sixty precincts. Beshear cut the margin to twelve and carried nine. Its Republicans out-vote its Democrats by eleven points in a presidential year, and three of its six House seats have no Democrat on the ballot.
- 06
Friday, October 2, 2026
Warren County: six House seats, $527,000, and nobody to spend it on
Bowling Green's county was Democratic by nineteen points on paper in 2010 and is Republican by seven now. It swings 28 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot — the widest in the series so far — and none of it matters in November, because all six of its legislative seats are Republican and all six are unopposed. Six incumbents, $527,000, nobody to spend it on.
- 07
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Hardin County: 175 votes for governor, not a dollar in the close House race
Elizabethtown and Fort Knox. Cameron carried Hardin by 175 votes in 2023; Trump carried it by 14,100 a year later. Twenty-six of its 58 precincts flipped between the two. The reason none of that reaches a legislative seat: the no-party column is one in seven voters and turned out at 17% in 2023 — the lowest in the series — and the one close race on the ballot is a House seat where neither candidate has reported a dollar.
- 08
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
A Democrat is out-raising the incumbent nine to one in Daviess County
Owensboro's county was Democratic by 32 points on paper in 2010 and is Republican by four now. It swings 34 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot, more than any county in this series so far. Every legislative seat on its ballot has a Democrat, and in the one that had none two years ago, the Democrat has $36,381 to the incumbent's $4,000.
- 09
Wednesday, October 7, 2026
The closest House seat in Kentucky is in Campbell County: 30 votes
Newport's county is the most Democratic of the three Northern Kentucky counties and the only one that gives Beshear a real margin — eight points in 2023. It has the closest House seat in Kentucky, a second seat where Beshear won the county's precincts by twelve votes and the incumbent has seven dollars to the challenger's one, and a Democratic column that shows up in off-years and disappears in federal ones.
- 10
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Madison County: a 34-point swing and two House seats with no Democrat
Richmond, Berea and Eastern Kentucky University. Beshear carried Madison by 185 votes in 2019 and by 932 in 2023; Trump carried it by 31. That's a 34-point swing, the widest of the ten counties in this series so far. Its Democrats out-vote its Republicans in Beshear years and in no others, and two of its four House seats have no Democrat on the ballot.
- 11
Friday, October 9, 2026
Bullitt County's Democratic vote hasn't moved in sixteen years
Louisville's southern exurb swings 37 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot — the widest in the series so far — and none of it is Democrats. About 10,000 people vote for the Democrat in Bullitt County every time, in every kind of year. The Republican vote goes from 14,000 to 32,000. Four legislative seats, four Republicans, four with no opponent.
- 12
Monday, October 12, 2026
McCracken County: $163,000 against nothing in Paducah's House seat
Paducah's county was 63% Democratic on paper in 2010 and is 42% now, and it's one of two counties in the series that grew through the purge. Beshear lost it by fifteen in 2019 and by six in 2023 — the biggest four-year gain of any county in the twenty outside Lexington. Four of its five legislative seats have no opponent. The fifth has a Democrat who hasn't reported a dollar against a Republican with $163,416.
- 13
Friday, October 16, 2026
The 125-vote House seat in Scott County has no Democrat on the ballot
Georgetown's county has grown by half since 2010 and swings 37 points between a Trump ballot and a Beshear ballot, tied for the widest in the series. Twenty-nine of its 45 precincts voted for Rand Paul and then for Andy Beshear. Its Democrats out-vote its Republicans in off-years. And the House seat that sits on all of that — lost by 125 votes in 2024 — has a Republican, an independent, and no Democrat on the ballot.
- 14
Saturday, October 17, 2026
Pike County: a 56-point swing, and the voter file just went Republican
Pikeville's county was 75% Democratic on paper in 2010 and had a Republican majority on the file for the first time this August. It voted for Rand Paul's opponent within a point in 2010, for Trump by 65 in 2024, and for Cameron by nine in between. That's a 56-point swing, seventeen wider than any other county in Kentucky's top twenty. It's also the only county in this series east of Lexington with a Democratic incumbent on the ballot — and he's being out-raised.
- 15
Monday, October 19, 2026
Jessamine County: Cameron's margin was 64 votes. The money gap is 13 to 1.
Nicholasville's county is Lexington's southern suburb, and it votes like the suburb it is: Trump by 36, Cameron by six, fourteen of 35 precincts flipping between them. Eleven of those flip precincts sit in the 39th, where Cameron's margin was 64 votes and the incumbent has $111,898 to the challenger's $8,582. Four Jessamine precincts sit in the 45th, which was decided by 172 votes in 2024 and holds the largest Democratic account in the House.
- 16
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Franklin County: a 39-point swing in the state capital
Frankfort is the last county in the twenty outside Louisville and Lexington with a Democratic majority on paper, and the only one whose Democrats turn out harder than its Republicans in a governor's year — by five and a half points in 2023. Beshear got 67% here. Trump carried it by five twelve months later. Charles Booker carried it in 2022. Its one House seat inside the city is a Democrat's, and nobody filed against her.