Every race in Kentucky is a math problem. I read it straight.
The read · The electorate
Registration for November ends October 5. Since the primary the rolls grew by 16,353 — and the Democratic column didn't get a single one of them. Fifteen counties have flipped to Republican on paper since 2024, including Pike and Woodford. The map of where the new voters actually landed says something else.
County Read No. 2 · Jefferson County
The biggest county in Kentucky is 56% Democratic on paper, votes 16 points Democratic in a presidential year and 40 in a Beshear year, and its registered Republicans have out-voted its registered Democrats in the last two federal elections. Eighteen House seats sit inside it. Seven are Republican. This year the Democrats are contesting six of them and the Republicans are contesting four of the other eleven.
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Jefferson County
Jefferson County votes on four state Senate seats this fall. One is Karen Berg's, and she's earned it. One has no Democrat in it. The other two are live: a teacher from Middletown in a district that went Trump by two, and a physician from Oldham County in one that went Beshear by twelve. The precinct maps say where each of them wins it.
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
County Read No. 1 · Oldham County
First in a series: the twenty biggest counties in Kentucky, one at a time, by the numbers. Oldham has gotten redder on paper every year since 2010 and bluer at the ballot box since 2016. In 2023 its registered Democrats out-voted its registered Republicans and Beshear lost the county by 225 votes. This fall, for the first time in the data, there's a Democrat on every legislative line of the ballot.
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The take
Every campaign in Kentucky is being sold AI this year, and most of the pitches are for the one thing it does worst. Here's where it actually earns its keep — and the three places I'd keep it out.
Monday, September 21, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Turnout
In a Trump-era federal election, registered Republicans in Kentucky turn out four to nine points better than registered Democrats. In a Beshear election the gap disappears. Two maps show where the gap actually lives — and it isn't where the map sends your eye first.
Friday, September 18, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Field notes
MyVoters is the file. MyCampaign is your people. Seven weeks out, the campaigns that will use October well are the ones running the two against each other now — and the first thing the join turns up is a number nobody wants to see.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · KY-06
Andy Barr scrubbed 16 Trump references on July 16. Ralph Alvarado scrubbed five more on August 19. Every public poll of the 6th is a Democratic internal — so read the campaigns' behavior instead. It's the most honest number in the race.
Monday, September 14, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · The electorate
The Democratic column has lost 16 points of the state since 2010, and most of it never cast a Democratic vote. Who's gone, who's new, why the headline number predicts the least — and what to do about it before the books close October 5.
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Field notes
It's the question every campaign gets in September, and most of them answer it wrong in one of two directions. Here's the ladder that turns a postcard table into a knocking crew — and the one rung almost nobody builds.
Friday, August 28, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Kentucky Senate
Kentucky's Senate is 30 Republicans to 7 Democrats. No turnout year fixes that. But nineteen seats are on the ballot in November, ten of them drew no Democrat at all last time, and three of those ten finally have one.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Fall 2026
Kentucky's last two midterms were 115,214 ballots apart. Which one 2026 resembles decides the Senate margin, five House tossups, and every close race in this state. Here are both scenarios, read straight.
Friday, August 21, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The take
In June I wrote that campaigns gather all the data and then don't use it. This is the follow-up nobody asked for and everybody needs: the five moves that turn a voter file from a receipt into a weapon.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Metro Council
Louisville just ran its first nonpartisan council primaries. Six districts, twelve November finalists, and a May electorate small enough to fit in a high-school gym. Here's what the numbers can tell you — and the bigger thing they can't.
Monday, August 17, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Jefferson County
Eighteen state House districts sit inside this county. Democrats hold eleven. Here's the honest math on the other seven — not who wins, but what each one costs in doors.
Friday, August 14, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Field notes
Every October, somebody calls asking for 200 volunteers by Saturday. Here's the arithmetic that call always loses to — doors, hours, and the calendar.
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · U.S. House
For the first time since 2022, every Kentucky congressional ballot has a Democrat on it. Here's the math on all six — including the seat Republicans spent $32 million taking away from their own incumbent.
Monday, August 10, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · voting law
The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act and Washington spent the summer fighting over mail ballots. Almost none of it moves a Kentucky number — and the one fight that would isn't the one making headlines.
Thursday, August 6, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Kentucky House
Republicans hold 80 seats to 20. But the chamber turns less on the five tossups everyone watches than on the 44 races where no Democrat even filed.
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The Read · Operator
Everyone says the party needs to organize. Almost no one says what the word means on a Tuesday afternoon when there's work to do. Here's the unglamorous version — what organizing actually is, and the handful of fundamentals that move a vote.
Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Primary recap
Four in five Jefferson voters waited for Election Day. That doesn't just describe the primary — it hands the fall back to the oldest program in the book: get-out-the-vote weekend, the good old definition.
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · split-ticket
A state that elected a Democratic governor handed Donald Trump a thirty-point landslide the next November. Kentuckians split their ticket — and that gap is the most important, and most misread, number in the state.
Thursday, July 16, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · money in politics
On June 30 the Supreme Court let parties spend unlimited money in coordination with their candidates. The sleeper consequence isn't in Washington. It's that a county party can now run an uncapped coordinated campaign — and this is the year Louisville should.
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · KY-06
Andy Barr left for the Senate, the 6th is open, and Zach Dembo is the Democrat. "Barr won by 26" hides the real story — which is sixteen different stories, and they don't behave alike.
Thursday, July 9, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Primary recap
The headline was the Senate race. The lesson was the turnout gap. And the most important numbers are the ones that weren't on the ballot in May.
Tuesday, July 7, 2026 · Lisa Norkus