Every race in Kentucky is a math problem. I read it straight.
Field notes
It's the question every campaign gets in September, and most of them answer it wrong in one of two directions. Here's the ladder that turns a postcard table into a knocking crew — and the one rung almost nobody builds.
The read · Kentucky Senate
Kentucky's Senate is 30 Republicans to 7 Democrats. No turnout year fixes that. But nineteen seats are on the ballot in November, ten of them drew no Democrat at all last time, and three of those ten finally have one.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Fall 2026
Kentucky's last two midterms were 115,214 ballots apart. Which one 2026 resembles decides the Senate margin, five House tossups, and every close race in this state. Here are both scenarios, read straight.
Friday, August 21, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The take
In June I wrote that campaigns gather all the data and then don't use it. This is the follow-up nobody asked for and everybody needs: the five moves that turn a voter file from a receipt into a weapon.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Metro Council
Louisville just ran its first nonpartisan council primaries. Six districts, twelve November finalists, and a May electorate small enough to fit in a high-school gym. Here's what the numbers can tell you — and the bigger thing they can't.
Monday, August 17, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Jefferson County
Eighteen state House districts sit inside this county. Democrats hold eleven. Here's the honest math on the other seven — not who wins, but what each one costs in doors.
Friday, August 14, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Field notes
Every October, somebody calls asking for 200 volunteers by Saturday. Here's the arithmetic that call always loses to — doors, hours, and the calendar.
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · U.S. House
For the first time since 2022, every Kentucky congressional ballot has a Democrat on it. Here's the math on all six — including the seat Republicans spent $32 million taking away from their own incumbent.
Monday, August 10, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · voting law
The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act and Washington spent the summer fighting over mail ballots. Almost none of it moves a Kentucky number — and the one fight that would isn't the one making headlines.
Thursday, August 6, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · Kentucky House
Republicans hold 80 seats to 20. But the chamber turns less on the five tossups everyone watches than on the 44 races where no Democrat even filed.
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The Read · Operator
Everyone says the party needs to organize. Almost no one says what the word means on a Tuesday afternoon when there's work to do. Here's the unglamorous version — what organizing actually is, and the handful of fundamentals that move a vote.
Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Primary recap
Four in five Jefferson voters waited for Election Day. That doesn't just describe the primary — it hands the fall back to the oldest program in the book: get-out-the-vote weekend, the good old definition.
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · split-ticket
A state that elected a Democratic governor handed Donald Trump a thirty-point landslide the next November. Kentuckians split their ticket — and that gap is the most important, and most misread, number in the state.
Thursday, July 16, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The read · money in politics
On June 30 the Supreme Court let parties spend unlimited money in coordination with their candidates. The sleeper consequence isn't in Washington. It's that a county party can now run an uncapped coordinated campaign — and this is the year Louisville should.
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · KY-06
Andy Barr left for the Senate, the 6th is open, and Zach Dembo is the Democrat. "Barr won by 26" hides the real story — which is sixteen different stories, and they don't behave alike.
Thursday, July 9, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Primary recap
The headline was the Senate race. The lesson was the turnout gap. And the most important numbers are the ones that weren't on the ballot in May.
Tuesday, July 7, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 · U.S. Senate
Three Kentucky Democrats have run for Senate in the last decade and lost. All three ran at an incumbent. This one doesn't — and that, plus a midterm with Trump off the ballot, is the whole case for paying attention.
Thursday, July 2, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Field notes
When they get confused for each other, both do worse. When they each do their own job, a coordinated campaign actually works.
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
The take
The most expensive mistake in Kentucky politics isn't a bad ad. It's a good number nobody acted on.
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
2026 primary · U.S. Senate
Barr swept the state red. Booker swept Louisville. The mountains broke for McGrath.
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · Lisa Norkus
Founder's note
Why I started The 120 — and what you can expect to find here.
Thursday, June 18, 2026 · Lisa Norkus